the record

The transparency log

Every claim this network makes is appended to a signed, append-only, hash-chained list with Merkle commitments — Certificate Transparency in shape and not in dependency. There is no blockchain, no token and no consensus protocol. Take a signed tree head published before an outcome, take the inclusion proof for a forecast, recompute the root: if it matches, that forecast existed beforehand, and nothing in that chain of reasoning requires trusting us.

Verify one forecast

The head of the log

REAL_UTC

Every entry in this log was written on the real UTC clock. Timestamps are instants in the world, subject to the ordinary caveat that the log proves the order entries were appended in and dates them only as tightly as the next signed tree head.

Entries by clock: REAL_UTC 2305. An entry with no declaration predates the stamp and reads UNDECLARED; it does not read REAL_UTC. The declaration is inside the hashed payload of every entry and inside the bytes each head's signature covers, so changing one does not produce a log that says something else — it produces one that stops verifying.

2305

entries

every claim, in append order

root_hash9259657b60d7

23052305

settled

covered by a tree head that verifies. The rest is recent activity and proves nothing yet.

root_hash9259657b60d7

published heads

each one signed. A total, not a share of one — there is no population a published head is a fraction of.

signing keys

public halves only

key_idb125970f0898

Current root

tree_size: 2305
root_hash: 9259657b60d7c54c7f061a7a621bf2f8747cab0885ee335ac1ed3b6657c9740d
latest signed head: size 2,305, signed 2 Oct 2026, 05:31 UTC

Signing keys

key_id: b125970f0898f76ee3498affa5f14018
ed25519: 3mkerRUvNrwtr4KF/qfqLvjm9PZA5qXe0YQuIFdEO2M=
registered: 15 Aug 2026, 19:34 UTC

key_id: b2c0b8d20ab4ba9a33d7db78a11896fb
ed25519: q9Y3OLc/eqnDc0ZLtjdxv9cj+hQWeb0/0uyAJs4xdBE=
registered: 15 Aug 2026, 19:45 UTC

key_id: dec0dd57ee6a1db96a4ef822105375f6
ed25519: A2oCmEJRp7O4Xn/0C2+2rmQOyL8ViEHcXwq8ihKBavk=
registered: 15 Aug 2026, 19:47 UTC

key_id: f1e46d17c46fd34453477fb59b93f430
ed25519: xp5IXWSd65rNwev4K7Ba7uOg0gODsKMj9TiZq5FO72U=
registered: 15 Aug 2026, 20:55 UTC

key_id: 042b55492fabadcb8ffb9fe4e9b6a3e8
ed25519: /HlOfDNZcTVNUXqKyK4Yb5Z0788UvbP8nJZQiTiSWKM=
registered: 19 Aug 2026, 20:24 UTC

The private half is generated once, printed once and never stored. A log whose signing key sits in the same database as the log is signed by whoever compromises that database.

sourceGET /api/transparency/summary· tree_size, root_hash, signing_keys· entries: 2,305

The recipe you would implement

published by the log · compared here with the arithmetic this page performs

One or more of the 5 steps below is not the step this page performs, or is not published at all. That is not a claim that the log is broken; it is a claim that its description and its arithmetic are no longer the same object, which is the condition under which an honest outside verifier concludes a good log is forged.

agrees
payload_hash
The published description and the step this page computes are the same words. Implementing what the log publishes reproduces what this page recomputes.
publishedsha256(canonical_json(payload))
computedsha256(canonical_json(payload)) · performed by canonicalSha256Hex(entry.payload)
agrees
entry_hash
The published description and the step this page computes are the same words. Implementing what the log publishes reproduces what this page recomputes.
publishedsha256(canonical_json({sequence_number, entry_type, payload_hash, previous_hash}))
computedsha256(canonical_json({sequence_number, entry_type, payload_hash, previous_hash})) · performed by entryHashOf(entry)
agrees
leaf
The published description and the step this page computes are the same words. Implementing what the log publishes reproduces what this page recomputes.
publishedsha256(0x00 || bytes.fromhex(entry_hash))
computedsha256(0x00 || bytes.fromhex(entry_hash)) · performed by leafHashOf(entry.entry_hash)
agrees
node
The published description and the step this page computes are the same words. Implementing what the log publishes reproduces what this page recomputes.
publishedsha256(0x01 || left || right)
computedsha256(0x01 || left || right) · performed by rootFromInclusionProof(...)
unrecognised
timestamps
The log publishes a step this build has never been told about. It is printed rather than dropped, because a recipe with a line missing is a recipe that does not work.
publishedRFC 3339 in UTC, microsecond precision, trailing `Z` — e.g. `2026-08-19T20:25:54.009933Z`. The JSON served by this API renders the same instants with `+00:00` instead; re-encode them before hashing or verifying, or the bytes will differ from the ones that were signed

How the bytes are produced

canonical_json: UTF-8, keys sorted, no insignificant whitespace; the exact bytes this process hashed, not a re-serialisation of the parsed value
timebase: every entry written from build 0023 onwards carries a `timebase` object in its payload: {clock; and on any virtual clock `real_instant`, the wall-clock moment the entry was appended; and on a declared virtual clock `virtual_origin` and `virtual_step_seconds`}. `real_instant` is absent on a real reading, where it would be a second copy of the instant beside it. It is inside `canonical_json(payload)` and therefore inside `payload_hash`, `entry_hash`, the chain and every root. An entry with no `timebase` key predates the stamp and means UNDECLARED — it does not mean REAL_UTC. `clock` is one of UNDECLARED, REAL_UTC, VIRTUAL_DECLARED, VIRTUAL_UNDECLARED; do not treat an unknown value as any of them
specification: RFC 6962

What a tree head's signature covers

algorithm: Ed25519 over the bytes below, base64 in `signature`
v2: canonical_json({log, tree_size, root_hash, key_id, created_at, timebase}), where `timebase` is the string served on the checkpoint and names the clock that stamped `created_at`
v1: canonical_json({log, tree_size, root_hash, key_id, created_at}) — no timebase key at all. The shape every head published before the clock was recorded was signed under; those heads are immutable and stay verifiable this way
version_field: the checkpoint's own `timebase`. UNDECLARED selects v1; every other value selects v2. Do not fall back between them: a verifier that retries under the other shape can be walked down to accepting a head whose declared clock has been changed
why_it_is_signed: `created_at` is the whole prospectivity claim — it is served as `proven_before` and read as 'this existed before that real moment'. On a substituted clock it is a virtual instant, and a column stating which is only a defence if changing it breaks something. Changing it breaks this signature

What a consensus digest covers

v2: sha256(canonical_json({question_id, computed_at, salt, readings})), where readings is the batch's populations sorted by population, each carrying exactly {population, method, method_version, sample_size, distinct_operator_count, value}
v1: as above with no salt key at all. The shape every entry written before the salt existed was computed under; those entries are immutable and stay verifiable this way
version_field: payload.commitment_version. Absent means v1; do not fall back between versions, the entry says which one it is
salt: 256 bits, one per batch, never in the payload. Served in the entry's `opening` block at /api/transparency/entries/{n} whenever the payload itself is served — which is immediately for an ordinary question and once forecasting closes for a blind one, on the same disclosure gate as every other surface
why_salted: without it the pre-image is enumerable: the methods are constants, the question id and the instant are published in the same entry, and on a thin question the sample size is a single digit and the value a five-decimal probability. An unsalted digest beside a withheld reading publishes the reading slowly

sourceGET /api/transparency/summary· hashing· published keys: 8

The self-audit

the same computation an outsider runs

oktrueEverything the audit checks recomputes.

read_only

The audit ran on a connection holding SELECT and nothing else, so the process that checked the log could not have written it.

PINNED

The operator has declared which signing key ids are authoritative for this log, so a checkpoint signed under any other key settles nothing — even if its signature is valid.

chain recomputation

chain intactpayload hashes match

2,305 entries recomputed from their stored payloads — the entry hash is not trusted, it is recomputed.

checkpoints

4545verified

Each root recomputed from the entries below it and each signature checked against the published key.

the settled prefix

23052305entries settled

Everything below sequence 2,305 is covered by a tree head signed 2 Oct 2026, 05:31 UTC. The 0 above it are pending: legitimately, that is just recent activity, and it proves nothing yet.

temporal order

02305violations

An entry claiming an instant earlier than one appended before it is the record contradicting itself. The chain proves append order; the timestamps inside entries are ordinary columns.

No coverage gaps. Every row in every covered table has a log entry, and no row claims to predate its own proof. The covered tables are the ones the engine lists; a table absent from that list is a table nobody promised anything about, and saying which those are is more useful than implying there are none.

uncovered0

A row exists that no settled logged entry mentions. Somebody wrote straight to the table.

mismatched0

A settled entry exists and the rows no longer agree with it. A post-hoc edit.

pending20

Written since the last checkpoint. Not yet attested and not yet suspect — this is what the gap between two signatures looks like, and it is the honest measure of how much of the record currently rests on nothing.

Every attested subject, with the three verdicts kept separate and each count against the batches it came out of.
subject	batches	pending
consensus_snapshots	1084	0
consensus_movements	4	0
evidence_snapshots	0	0
evidence_citations	0	0
forecast_commitments	1181	0
question_outcomes	0	0
forecast_questions	50	14
question_resolutions	0	0
forecast_scores	0	0
forecast_commitment_openings	1181	0
actor_calibrations	0	0
influence_edges	0	6
log_timebase	2305	0

batches is the n each row is read against, and it is a column of this table rather than a denominator inside the counts. It is not one: influence_edges reports 0 batches and 4 pending, because pending counts rows written since the last checkpoint and batches counts attested batches. Printing them as a fraction would state a relationship the engine never claimed.

13 attested subjects over 5,805 batches. 0 uncovered, 0 mismatched, 20 pending. Nothing is unaccounted for and nothing has been edited after the fact.

Pending is deliberately not part of the engine's own verdict. A row written since the last checkpoint has not failed anything; it has not been attested yet, and the two are different claims.

sourceGET /api/transparency/audit· attestations, coverage_gaps, settled· attested subjects: 13

Signed tree heads

ordered by tree_size_descnewest first

Published tree heads, newest first, with the interval between each and the one before it.
tree_size	signed at	clock	gap since previous head	entries added	key_id	root_hash
2305	2 Oct 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 27s	20	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash9259657b60d7. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,305.
2285	1 Oct 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 43s	20	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash17330c6327e6. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,285.
2265	30 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 0s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash0feab2262fa1. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,265.
2239	29 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 41s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash03dd6fb33b4b. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,239.
2213	28 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 18s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashe6ef985c2d8c. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,213.
2187	27 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 58m 10s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashb1b50955e508. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,187.
2161	26 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 30s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash08d42dfc1a68. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,161.
2135	25 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 21s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash45e4998f74d5. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,135.
2109	24 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 59s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hasha31f6b62ecd0. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,109.
2083	23 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 40s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashd6c88688a6cd. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,083.
2057	22 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 58m 21s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash857e19aa8f1c. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,057.
2031	21 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 0s	26	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashd7dff8ca0510. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,031.
2005	20 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 0s	28	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash60e3cd283b73. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 2,005.
1977	19 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 0s	28	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash030d7ba0b761. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,977.
1949	18 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 39s	28	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashf455650aa2cf. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,949.
1921	17 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 38s	28	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashde4645b3ae57. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,921.
1893	16 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 42s	28	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash2945d3fce4b0. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,893.
1865	15 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 58m 2s	38	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash427bf2bb2a98. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,865.
1827	14 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 59s	38	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash6e05cf324ce3. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,827.
1789	13 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 58m 0s	40	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash388bd49a3665. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,789.
1749	12 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 0s	40	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashe8cba9a99f4a. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,749.
1709	11 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 40s	40	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashe91d99cb0270. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,709.
1669	10 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 1s	42	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash523070ab7c91. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,669.
1627	9 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 58s	42	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashece15eb8383a. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,627.
1585	8 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 21s	46	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hasha224a45fec4b. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,585.
1539	7 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 59s	46	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash5f62430a9706. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,539.
1493	6 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 39s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash1fa4feff08bf. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,493.
1445	5 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 2s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash14935c0bde67. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,445.
1397	4 Sept 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 20s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashdcdf356cdf9d. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,397.
1349	3 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 0s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash7f923b9e2763. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,349.
1301	2 Sept 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 0s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash7412c3bb0fe0. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,301.
1253	1 Sept 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 2s	60	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash3cad2e0ecd54. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,253.
1193	31 Aug 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 38s	60	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash15e3eb7357c2. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,193.
1133	30 Aug 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 41s	60	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashf93488269a5a. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,133.
1073	29 Aug 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 28s	60	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash5dba160bb906. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,073.
1013	28 Aug 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 58m 51s	60	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash31cb04f309e4. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 1,013.
953	27 Aug 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 20s	62	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash777b84e80ce5. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 953.
891	26 Aug 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 0m 49s	62	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash1b6242aee457. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 891.
829	25 Aug 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 11s	62	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash54d12dac3124. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 829.
767	24 Aug 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 9s	62	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hasha28d9edb9694. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 767.
705	23 Aug 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	1d 0h 1m 29s	73	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash4d18c6a52af8. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 705.
632	22 Aug 2026, 05:30 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 21s	70	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashee7d3fc82f5a. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 632.
562	21 Aug 2026, 05:31 UTC	REAL_UTC	23h 59m 18s	140	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash92c30356f864. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 562.
422	20 Aug 2026, 05:32 UTC	REAL_UTC	9h 6m 11s	48	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hash9c6be349cd97. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 422.
374	19 Aug 2026, 20:25 UTC	REAL_UTC	first published head — nothing before it	374	key_id042b55492fab. The identifier of the key this tree head was signed under.	root_hashecf4adc708ae. The Merkle root this head was signed over, at size 374.

Read the gap column as the resolution of this log. Every entry appended inside one of those intervals is dated no more finely than the interval itself: the head that closes it proves the entry already existed, and everything before that instant is this system's own timestamp. The gap and the entries-added columns are subtractions between each row and the one below it, computed in this page from the two figures printed beside them. Published heads: 45. Intervals between them: 44. No average is taken over them here — a summary statistic over a handful of measurements reads as a cadence and is not one.

What this log withholds

by design · counted on the entries below

125

withheld

the blind gate held. Deliberate, temporary, and the engine's reason is printed below.

025

identified, not named

served in full, and this kind of entry names its subject with an identifier rather than a slug. Nothing was kept back.

2425

named

served in full, with a readable subject in the payload.

Counted over the 25 entries on this page, out of 2,305 in the log. The gate is applied per reader by the API, so another reader may see a different count on the same page — that is the gate working, not the page disagreeing with itself.

gated entry types presentdelphi.forecast.committed

1 withhelddelphi.forecast.committed: this entry records a forecast on a blind question; its contents are released when forecasting closes. The hash chain and every proof over it remain verifiable meanwhile.

A withheld payload is not a hole in the record. The entry, its hash and its position in the chain are all served, and every proof over it stays fully verifiable — a verifier can confirm the entry exists under a signed root without being told what it says.

sourceGET /api/transparency/entries· payload_withheld, withheld_because· entries on this page: 25

The vocabulary, counted

every chip is a tally of real records

Interval attestation

LOG_PROVEN_ORDER0TIMESTAMP_ATTESTED_ONLY0not recorded0

n05below the interpretable sample

This tally stands on 0 records and the engine's minimum interpretable sample is 5. Every count on it is true and none of them is a rate: at this size the figures describe named records rather than a distribution, and drawing them like a distribution is what makes honest sparsity look like fakery.

over the last 7 days.

Attestation verdict

uncovered0mismatched0pending20

n5805census, not a sample

summed over 13 attested subjects.

Every attested batch in the log is counted, so there is no sample under these figures to overstate and no interpretable-sample threshold that could apply to them. The tally beside them is a different kind of object and is marked as one.

Prospectivity

No aggregate of these labels is served anywhere in the API, so none is drawn here. They are rendered on the records that carry them — on the trust gap of any commitment, and on the receipt under any figure that has one. A chip standing for no record would be the one failure this band exists to avoid.

A zero on a chip means the vocabulary exists and no record in the stated window carries that value. It does not mean the value is unused, and it is not evidence of anything except the size of this network.

sourceGET /api/network/first-movers · GET /api/transparency/audit· attestation, attestations· attested subjects: 13

The log

ordered by sequence_number_ascentries 75–99 of 2,305

Rehashing these entries in this browser…

The transparency log, in append order. Each row links to the entry, its full payload and its inclusion proof.
seq	entry_type	subject	logged_at	entry_hash	payload
75. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-at-least-three-more-atlantic-storms-be-named-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.492741ZREAL_UTC	f86e976eb1b1. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 75. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
76. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-openai-announce-a-model-numbered-above-5-6-between-24-august-and-31-october-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.516100ZREAL_UTC	5eedbe1d07f1. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 76. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
77. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-national-hurricane-center-classify-an-atlantic-hurricane-by-15-september-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.534349ZREAL_UTC	28bb21eb4f50. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 77. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
78. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-spacex-conduct-starship-flight-14-on-or-before-30-september-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.551795ZREAL_UTC	081d374987c1. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 78. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
79. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-euro-area-annual-hicp-inflation-for-august-2026-come-in-at-3-0-or-higher	2026-08-15 16:06:07.572773ZREAL_UTC	23b89caef729. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 79. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
80. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-who-declare-the-ebola-public-health-emergency-over-before-the-end-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.592106ZREAL_UTC	3bb703847294. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 80. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
81. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-who-report-more-than-20-human-h5n1-cases-with-onset-in-the-second-half-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.604899ZREAL_UTC	38a378c92475. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 81. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
82. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-eu-council-adopt-a-new-russia-sanctions-package-before-the-end-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.617389ZREAL_UTC	39270cf17e6c. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 82. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
83. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-a-commercial-lunar-lander-achieve-a-soft-landing-between-september-and-december-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.630071ZREAL_UTC	4c194a7b070e. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 83. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
84. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-2026-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-fall-below-4-50-million-square-kilometres	2026-08-15 16:06:07.641413ZREAL_UTC	9595c699416d. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 84. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
85. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-afd-receive-the-highest-second-vote-share-in-saxony-anhalt-on-6-september-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.654250ZREAL_UTC	86d2488177d9. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 85. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
86. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-un-general-assembly-adopt-a-resolution-on-ukraine-before-the-end-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.668845ZREAL_UTC	16d26dfcd231. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 86. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
87. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-any-team-win-all-six-champions-league-league-phase-matches-played-in-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.684080ZREAL_UTC	22d9cd5e598b. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 87. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
88. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-ecb-leave-the-deposit-facility-rate-unchanged-at-its-10-september-2026-meeting	2026-08-15 16:06:07.698449ZREAL_UTC	a58a426d3751. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 88. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
89. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-the-social-democrats-take-the-largest-vote-share-in-the-swedish-election-on-13-september	2026-08-15 16:06:07.712039ZREAL_UTC	18055eb50433. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 89. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
90. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-databricks-publicly-file-a-form-s-1-with-the-sec-before-2027	2026-08-15 16:06:07.722850ZREAL_UTC	3fe1f1077989. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 90. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
91. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-openai-s-form-s-1-become-publicly-available-on-sec-edgar-before-2027	2026-08-15 16:06:07.734604ZREAL_UTC	9f23c6732f4a. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 91. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
92. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-grand-theft-auto-vi-be-available-for-purchase-on-or-before-19-november-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.746062ZREAL_UTC	2e092b440ba7. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 92. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
93. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-steam-exceed-its-all-time-concurrent-user-record-of-42-042-778-before-2027	2026-08-15 16:06:07.757292ZREAL_UTC	72f4fb69575f. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 93. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
94. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-an-eu-enforcement-action-over-ai-act-article-50-transparency-be-announced-in-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.768832ZREAL_UTC	238813d1aad2. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 94. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
95. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-any-party-win-an-absolute-majority-of-seats-in-mecklenburg-vorpommern-on-20-september	2026-08-15 16:06:07.780689ZREAL_UTC	f2f9a736adf6. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 95. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
96. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-blue-origin-launch-a-new-glenn-rocket-before-the-end-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.792763ZREAL_UTC	60f97936e040. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 96. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
97. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-copernicus-report-september-2026-as-the-warmest-september-in-its-record	2026-08-15 16:06:07.807418ZREAL_UTC	62749797a16e. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 97. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
98. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	will-both-openai-and-anthropic-announce-a-new-model-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2026	2026-08-15 16:06:07.819458ZREAL_UTC	7113bb1fff7f. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 98. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	served
99. Opens this entry and its inclusion proof.	delphi.forecast.committed	withheld. this entry records a forecast on a blind question; its contents are released when forecasting closes. The hash chain and every proof over it remain verifiable meanwhile.	2026-08-15 16:06:07.832841ZREAL_UTC	9a2ca35edb01. Truncated commitment hash for The chained hash of entry 99. Opens its inclusion proof.. Opens the proof.	withheld. this entry records a forecast on a blind question; its contents are released when forecasting closes. The hash chain and every proof over it remain verifiable meanwhile.

delphi.forecast.committed: commits to a hash commitment to one forecast, not the probability

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sourceGET /api/transparency/entries· sequence_number, entry_hash, payload· entries on this page: 25

What this does not prove

It does not prove a forecast was honest, only that it was early.
It does not prove the log is complete. A log can omit. Detecting omission requires an entry to be gossiped to a third party, which is what a witness or a mirror would add and this deployment has neither.
Until a signed head covers an entry, its prospectivity rests on this system's own timestamp. That is what the pending count above measures.
The hash chain proves append order absolutely and proves nothing about the timestamps inside entries, which are ordinary columns whoever appends chooses. Two forecasts written A-then-B can carry timestamps saying B-then-A; the audit's temporal-order check is what catches that, not the chain.
Ed25519 signatures are only as good as the custody of the private key, and the public halves above arrived over this same connection.
The recipe comparison above proves the published description and this page's arithmetic say the same words. It does not prove either is what the server did: both hashing and this viewer could be wrong together. What rules that out is a third implementation, which is exactly what a reader with thirty lines of their own code is.