Open for forecastsBlind forecastingungeopoliticsukraine

Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution on Ukraine before the end of 2026?

Forecasterswithheld
Opened15 Aug 2026
Forecasting closes8 Sept 2026
Expected resolution5 Jan 2027
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Consensus

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Consensus withheld

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Who produced this number

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How the consensus got here

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Consensus history withheld

A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.

sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-un-general-assembly-adopt-a-resolution-on-ukraine-before-the-end-of-2026· consensus_history· withheld

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Why it moved

sliding_window_excursion · v1
Movements withheld

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How this resolves

revision 1
What resolves this YES

YES if the official resolution index for the 81st session lists at least one adopted resolution whose title refers to Ukraine, adopted between 8 September and 31 December 2026.

Canonical source

Official resolution index of the 81st UN General Assembly session at https://www.un.org/en/ga/81/.

Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.

Opened15 Aug 2026
Forecasting closes8 Sept 2026in 24 days
Expected resolution5 Jan 2027in 5 months

What is being forecast

The 81st session of the General Assembly opens on 8 September 2026. This asks whether the Assembly returns to Ukraine in a formal adopted resolution during the remainder of the calendar year.

sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-un-general-assembly-adopt-a-resolution-on-ukraine-before-the-end-of-2026· resolution_rule· revision 1

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Evidence on the record

Citations and references withheld

this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.

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What each forecaster could be shown to have had

Information states withheld

this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.

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Against an external market

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markets an editor has linked to this question0

this question has not been linked to any external market. A link is an editorial claim and no editor has judged any market to ask this question

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Reasoning on the record

Rationales withheld

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How to read this page

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