Will the Democratic Party hold a House majority after the 3 November 2026 midterms?
Consensus
both figures, always together
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Who produced this number
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How the consensus got here
A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-democratic-party-hold-a-house-majority-after-the-3-november-2026-midterms· consensus_history· withheld
Why it moved
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
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How this resolves
YES if Democrats hold at least 218 of 435 seats measured against results certified by state election authorities as of 15 December 2026. Later special elections and party switches do not count.
Certified state results and the official tally published by the Clerk of the US House at https://clerk.house.gov/.
Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.
What is being forecast
All 435 seats in the US House are contested on 3 November 2026. This asks about the certified outcome rather than about election-night calls, which is why it resolves in mid-December.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-democratic-party-hold-a-house-majority-after-the-3-november-2026-midterms· resolution_rule· revision 1
Evidence on the record
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
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What each forecaster could be shown to have had
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-democratic-party-hold-a-house-majority-after-the-3-november-2026-midterms/information-state· information_states· 0 rows
Against an external market
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Reasoning on the record
A published rationale carries the number it was written to justify, so rationales are withheld with the forecasts on a blind question.
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How to read this page
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears as an em dash with the reason beside it, never as a zero. A collection that was withheld says so, and is deliberately a different screen from one that is empty.