Will the Brazilian presidential election on 4 October 2026 be decided in the first round?
Consensus
both figures, always together
this question is blind and its consensus has not been disclosed to you; submit an independent forecast and reveal it, or wait for the question to close
Nothing here is recomputed when it is released. The rows already exist; you are not being shown a figure that was calculated because you asked.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/consensus· raw· independence_adjusted· withheld
Who produced this number
this question is blind and its consensus has not been disclosed to you; submit an independent forecast and reveal it, or wait for the question to close
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How the consensus got here
A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round· consensus_history· withheld
Why it moved
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/why-it-moved· consensus_movements· 5 populations
How this resolves
YES if one candidate receives more than 50 % of valid votes according to the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral and no run-off is scheduled.
Tribunal Superior Eleitoral official results at https://www.tse.jus.br.
Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.
What is being forecast
Brazil votes on 4 October 2026, with a run-off scheduled for 25 October if no candidate passes fifty per cent of valid votes. Most recent Brazilian presidential elections have gone to a second round.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round· resolution_rule· revision 1
Evidence on the record
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/evidence· citations· references· 0 + 0 rows
What each forecaster could be shown to have had
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/information-state· information_states· 0 rows
Against an external market
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this question has not been linked to any external market. A link is an editorial claim and no editor has judged any market to ask this question
sourceGET /api/sensors/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/divergence· items· 0 links· link_created_at_asc
Reasoning on the record
A published rationale carries the number it was written to justify, so rationales are withheld with the forecasts on a blind question.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-brazilian-presidential-election-on-4-october-2026-be-decided-in-the-first-round/commitments· rationale_summary· withheld
How to read this page
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears as an em dash with the reason beside it, never as a zero. A collection that was withheld says so, and is deliberately a different screen from one that is empty.