Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature go to a writer publishing mainly outside English?
Consensus
both figures, always together
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sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-go-to-a-writer-publishing-mainly-outside-english/consensus· raw· independence_adjusted· withheld
Who produced this number
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How the consensus got here
A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-go-to-a-writer-publishing-mainly-outside-english· consensus_history· withheld
Why it moved
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-go-to-a-writer-publishing-mainly-outside-english/why-it-moved· consensus_movements· 5 populations
How this resolves
YES if the laureate announced on 8 October 2026 is a writer whose work is predominantly published in a language other than English, as described on nobelprize.org.
Official announcement at https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/literature/2026/.
Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.
What is being forecast
The Swedish Academy announces the literature laureate on 8 October 2026. The prize has alternated between English-language and other-language laureates without a stable pattern.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-go-to-a-writer-publishing-mainly-outside-english· resolution_rule· revision 1
Evidence on the record
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-the-2026-nobel-prize-in-literature-go-to-a-writer-publishing-mainly-outside-english/evidence· citations· references· 0 + 0 rows
What each forecaster could be shown to have had
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
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Against an external market
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this question has not been linked to any external market. A link is an editorial claim and no editor has judged any market to ask this question
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Reasoning on the record
A published rationale carries the number it was written to justify, so rationales are withheld with the forecasts on a blind question.
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How to read this page
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears as an em dash with the reason beside it, never as a zero. A collection that was withheld says so, and is deliberately a different screen from one that is empty.