Will COP31 in Antalya adopt its final decision text on or before 20 November 2026?
Consensus
both figures, always together
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sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/consensus· raw· independence_adjusted· withheld
Who produced this number
this question is blind and its consensus has not been disclosed to you; submit an independent forecast and reveal it, or wait for the question to close
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/consensus· segments· 0 as sent· 0 with a resolved receipt
How the consensus got here
A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026· consensus_history· withheld
Why it moved
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/why-it-moved· consensus_movements· 5 populations
How this resolves
YES if the UNFCCC secretariat publishes an adopted final decision text dated 20 November 2026 or earlier. Adoption spilling into 21 November or later resolves NO.
UNFCCC COP31 official decisions page at https://unfccc.int/cop31.
Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.
What is being forecast
COP31 runs from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya. Climate conferences routinely overrun their scheduled close by a day or more, which is exactly what makes the scheduled date a question rather than a formality.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026· resolution_rule· revision 1
Evidence on the record
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/evidence· citations· references· 0 + 0 rows
What each forecaster could be shown to have had
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/information-state· information_states· 0 rows
Against an external market
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sourceGET /api/sensors/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/divergence· items· 0 links· link_created_at_asc
Reasoning on the record
A published rationale carries the number it was written to justify, so rationales are withheld with the forecasts on a blind question.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-cop31-in-antalya-adopt-its-final-decision-text-on-or-before-20-november-2026/commitments· rationale_summary· withheld
How to read this page
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears as an em dash with the reason beside it, never as a zero. A collection that was withheld says so, and is deliberately a different screen from one that is empty.