Will Anthropic announce a new Claude model between 24 August and 30 September 2026?
Consensus
both figures, always together
this question is blind and its consensus has not been disclosed to you; submit an independent forecast and reveal it, or wait for the question to close
Nothing here is recomputed when it is released. The rows already exist; you are not being shown a figure that was calculated because you asked.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/consensus· raw· independence_adjusted· withheld
Who produced this number
this question is blind and its consensus has not been disclosed to you; submit an independent forecast and reveal it, or wait for the question to close
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/consensus· segments· 0 as sent· 0 with a resolved receipt
How the consensus got here
A chart of how the consensus moved is the consensus, sampled. It is withheld with the figure and released with it.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026· consensus_history· withheld
Why it moved
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/why-it-moved· consensus_movements· 5 populations
How this resolves
YES if a post dated between 24 August and 30 September 2026 inclusive on anthropic.com/news has as its subject the availability of a Claude model not previously available. Pricing, safety policy, personnel, partnership posts and availability of an existing model on a new platform do not count.
The dated post list at https://www.anthropic.com/news.
Revision 1 — the text published when the question opened, unchanged. Written 15 Aug 2026, 15:53 UTC.
What is being forecast
Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on 30 June 2026 and Claude Opus 5 on 24 July 2026, and has announced nothing since. This asks whether the cadence continues inside a five-week window.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026· resolution_rule· revision 1
Evidence on the record
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/evidence· citations· references· 0 + 0 rows
What each forecaster could be shown to have had
this question is in blind mode and is still open, and a movement names who moved and by how much. That is an individual forecast under another name, so it is withheld until the reader has passed the same disclosure gate that governs every other surface. Nothing here is recomputed when it is released: the rows already exist.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/information-state· information_states· 0 rows
Against an external market
a link between a question here and an external market is an editorial claim that two questions ask the same thing, made by a named actor with a stated method, a stated confidence and a mandatory equivalence note. Nothing here is matched automatically: there is no title similarity, no embedding and no score, because a wrong automatic link would put a false number on a public page under somebody's name
this question has not been linked to any external market. A link is an editorial claim and no editor has judged any market to ask this question
sourceGET /api/sensors/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/divergence· items· 0 links· link_created_at_asc
Reasoning on the record
A published rationale carries the number it was written to justify, so rationales are withheld with the forecasts on a blind question.
sourceGET /api/questions/will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026/commitments· rationale_summary· withheld
How to read this page
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears as an em dash with the reason beside it, never as a zero. A collection that was withheld says so, and is deliberately a different screen from one that is empty.