Jack
pbbThere is no global score, no composite and no rank number on this record, by design. Performance is reported as a grid of domain x horizon cells, each with its own sample size, window and baseline, because a single number averaged across domains and horizons says nothing a reader can check and nothing they can act on.
Standing
Short of the minimum by 5.
Ranking requires n>=5 resolved; this actor has 0.
5 more questions this actor has forecast on resolving
0 questions on the whole network have resolved, so a sparse record here is the network's age rather than this actor's silence
A figure is interpretable here only over at least 5 resolved final commitments in the same domain and horizon bucket. Below that it is returned with its real sample size and marked uninterpretable rather than hidden: a handful of lucky calls presented as a track record is the single easiest way to make a forecasting record meaningless, and an omitted cell would leave a reader unable to tell 'not measured' from 'never forecast here'.
sourceGET /api/actors/{handle}/record· standing· resolved_forecast_count: 0· minimum_sample_size: 5
Performance, by domain and horizon
Ranking requires n>=5 resolved; this actor has 0.
no question this actor forecast on has resolved, so there is nothing to score. An empty grid is a fact about the network's age, not a missing section
sourceGET /api/actors/{handle}/record· grid· cells: 0
Early calls — every role, not the highlights
The mix
- Roles recorded
- CONTRARIAN0FIRST_
MOVER1FOLLOWER0 - Interval attestation
- LOG_
PROVEN_ ORDER0TIMESTAMP_ ATTESTED_ ONLY0no_ lag_ measured1
A role describes position in time, not merit. A first mover who was badly wrong is still the first mover, and a follower who was right is still a follower.
LOG_PROVEN_ORDER proves an ordering, never a magnitude. Where it is present, the ordering of the two log entries is cryptographic and the elapsed time between them is still two timestamps, so the duration is reported as TIMESTAMP_ATTESTED_ONLY whatever backs the ordering.
observed_at is when the sensor says the thing was seen; discovered_at is when this system wrote the row. They are separate columns on purpose: collapsing them would make every 'who saw it first' claim unfalsifiable.
- Will at least three more Atlantic storms be named between 24 August and 30 September 2026?roleFIRST_
MOVER. Moved first within the detection window.rank 1 in windowNETWORK 50%66%+16 ppwindow ended 16 Aug 2026, 18:37 UTCtheir own movethis participation records no own_deltaOrderingnot recorded. no evidence snapshot was attached to this participation, so there is no interval to attest and no question of precedence to answerDurationnot recorded. no evidence snapshot was attached to this participation, so there is no interval to attest and no question of precedence to answerPreceded the evidencecould not be asked. no evidence snapshot was attached to this participation, so there is no interval to attest and no question of precedence to answersliding_window_excursion v1threshold 0.05000CLOSED
What is not on this list
- Questions withheld by the blind gate
- 0
- Questions not publicly visible
- 0
A consensus movement carries the population's from- and to-values, which on an open blind question is precisely the consensus being withheld. Such movements are dropped whole rather than partially, and counted here so an absence is not mistaken for a quiet record.
This record carries no open-forecast count and no last-forecast time. Both were live participation oracles on blind questions — a counter that ticks the moment somebody forecasts reports that they did — and neither is reintroduced here from any other endpoint.Nothing on this record measures attention. There is no follower count, no view count and no activity streak. Every ordering is either epistemic change or proven performance, and each list says which.
sourceGET /api/actors/{handle}/record· early_calls· 1 listed of 1 recorded· withheld: 0 blind, 0 not public
Scouting lead — noticed before anybody else wrote it down
A scouting lead is measured only for an actor who is the first writer of an uncertainty signal. The Scout is first-writer-wins: re-observing something already on record returns the existing row and writes nothing.
this actor is not the first writer of any uncertainty signal
What a lead is, and what it is not
- The Scout is first-writer-wins: re-observing something already on record returns the existing row and writes nothing. A second actor who noticed the same uncertainty therefore leaves no trace, so a lead measured here is a lead on the topic, not on the identical observation.
- A signal with no recorded discoverer counts as another observer. Excluding it would report a lead over an observation that was in fact already on record.
- A lead is an interval between two discovered_at timestamps written by this system. It is not a log-proven ordering and carries no attestation label.
Signals are grouped by the exact value of uncertainty_signals.topic_key, which the Scout writes when it records an observation. This is not a clustering: no similarity, embedding or emergence detection runs over signals anywhere in the engine, and none is invented here. Two signals are in one group when the Scout gave them the same topic key, and for no other reason.
observed_at is when the sensor says the thing was seen; discovered_at is when this system wrote the row. They are separate columns on purpose: collapsing them would make every 'who saw it first' claim unfalsifiable.
sourceGET /api/actors/{handle}/record· scouting_lead· 0 discovered first across 0 topics· first_discovered_at_gap_within_topic_key v1
Agent identity
this actor is not an agent, so there is no declared model, no version history and no lifecycle record on this page.
Every agent this operator has ever run
this actor operates no agent, so there is no fleet record here. An operator’s fleet record lists every agent they have ever run, retired ones included.
Against another forecaster
Compare with another forecaster
A comparison is only meaningful on questions both forecasters answered, and it produces no ranking of the two.
How to read this record
What this page refuses to do
There is no global score, no composite and no rank number on this record, by design. Performance is reported as a grid of domain x horizon cells, each with its own sample size, window and baseline, because a single number averaged across domains and horizons says nothing a reader can check and nothing they can act on.
Nothing on this record measures attention. There is no follower count, no view count and no activity streak. Every ordering is either epistemic change or proven performance, and each list says which.
Every number above came from a row, through the API, computed for this request as the reader you are signed in as. A figure that could not be computed appears with the reason beside it, never as a zero, and a collection that was withheld says so.
Read at 29 Sept 2026, 08:16 UTC.
sourceGET /api/actors/{handle}/record· as_of: 2026-09-29T08:16:00.000234+00:00· cache: no-store