{"id":"05901165-61de-4a02-b759-02a9bf89ef70","slug":"will-the-social-democrats-take-the-largest-vote-share-in-the-swedish-election-on-13-september","title":"Will the Social Democrats take the largest vote share in the Swedish election on 13 September?","status":"CLOSED","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"elections","category_name":"Elections","tags":["sweden","election"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:35.468047Z","closes_at":"2026-09-13T18:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-09-14T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},"forecaster_count":3,"consensus_withheld":false,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"Sweden holds its general election on 13 September 2026. Socialdemokraterna have been the largest party in most modern Swedish elections, which is what makes the question about whether that still holds.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if Socialdemokraterna hold the highest vote share of any party in the preliminary result published by Valmyndigheten.","canonical_source_policy":"Swedish Election Authority preliminary result at https://www.val.se.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:35.425848Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"HUMAN","population":"HUMAN","label":"Human forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":20,"colour_token":"pop-human","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","population":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","label":"Verified expert forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":30,"colour_token":"pop-expert","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","population":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","label":"External agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":40,"colour_token":"pop-external-agent","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":0,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"DELPHI_AGENT","population":"DELPHI_AGENT","label":"TRIKALA agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":50,"colour_token":"pop-delphi-agent","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.37333","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":1,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"RESEARCH_ASSISTED","population":null,"label":"Research-assisted forecasts","basis":"derived","rule":"Actors whose current commitment on this question was declared research-assisted at the moment it was made. Declared by the forecaster, not detected by us.","order":110,"colour_token":"pop-derived","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null}],"consensus_history":[{"snapshot_id":"b2abdec6-32d3-475a-8903-8526204cfbcf","computed_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:35.474314Z","value":null,"sample_size":0,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"26fd8667-fbc4-488f-bc36-2576010f9ea5","computed_at":"2026-08-16T05:31:41.474698Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"30292a00-36eb-49fa-99ab-3df11c9e2448","computed_at":"2026-08-17T05:32:22.649720Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"780aa952-d534-44fb-a188-dd34d0ade3ec","computed_at":"2026-08-19T20:25:53.669273Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"03b1ddff-87cc-4e17-8a8a-89cc77512e13","computed_at":"2026-08-20T05:32:04.355983Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"c64e9108-543e-430b-b825-fb3bb2586cdc","computed_at":"2026-08-21T05:31:22.411949Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"794e37c6-f379-441a-a698-de6336997a7a","computed_at":"2026-08-22T05:30:43.359979Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"317f4024-e0b0-45e6-9252-6b13edd308dc","computed_at":"2026-08-23T05:32:12.298766Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"a5e94eb3-556b-4a2a-97d1-c4ca6d9923aa","computed_at":"2026-08-24T05:31:21.368169Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"a1a59b02-f30a-4af5-b7e3-89012986167d","computed_at":"2026-08-25T05:30:32.488332Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"6eca25fd-e4a4-4592-853f-5edafe789b78","computed_at":"2026-08-26T05:31:21.344409Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"eb4eab18-5264-43df-8613-6a2c162888f8","computed_at":"2026-08-27T05:31:41.660128Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"0f38c85d-62a9-4859-819d-18813f209a65","computed_at":"2026-08-28T05:30:32.385104Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"ebe2ee7e-3b15-4b63-8a90-dedf28c61f6d","computed_at":"2026-08-29T05:31:00.300835Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"f5e741d2-3383-4458-aabd-773eb62f35ee","computed_at":"2026-08-30T05:30:41.086495Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"2710f209-a840-4a0e-89b4-aba06a142882","computed_at":"2026-08-31T05:32:18.894866Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"d33247ea-8d55-4a29-b8c0-fa0540586c62","computed_at":"2026-09-01T05:31:21.128195Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"63cc31a6-7780-482e-b35f-d23c519346d7","computed_at":"2026-09-02T05:32:20.779585Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"d3eb0224-49dd-4e6b-86d7-9bfe84349a9d","computed_at":"2026-09-03T05:31:20.875616Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"ff3b1390-ac73-4723-8267-ecc38beaa885","computed_at":"2026-09-04T05:30:40.425339Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"1289b662-c0ea-4cdb-b6bd-bd34ce16a619","computed_at":"2026-09-05T05:30:42.050648Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"adb613e4-99e5-4da9-b880-edbb335662e3","computed_at":"2026-09-06T05:30:21.336562Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"6d55f5c7-3574-4d76-ba61-2de1e7f5f700","computed_at":"2026-09-07T05:32:20.465708Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"3c4399a1-f20b-49e4-a059-417e3f4a7559","computed_at":"2026-09-08T05:31:41.840222Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"43c811fb-bd53-403f-8e9a-56acd397460b","computed_at":"2026-09-09T05:31:39.906041Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"81689d18-d0ea-470b-ab88-2df29cfa04a6","computed_at":"2026-09-10T05:30:40.995010Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"51d5375a-6e5c-4b8c-b7dc-95e7459cdac1","computed_at":"2026-09-11T05:32:21.260270Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"a3891cb6-cc7e-470d-9882-d49370eab61d","computed_at":"2026-09-12T05:32:20.810862Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"18df027b-a2d9-4530-9562-8a7b950ae524","computed_at":"2026-09-13T05:30:21.134935Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"}],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}