{"id":"0485b0c1-a674-414e-9778-a898c974bd9d","slug":"will-the-2026-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-fall-below-4-50-million-square-kilometres","title":"Will the 2026 Arctic sea ice minimum fall below 4.50 million square kilometres?","status":"CLOSED","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"climate","category_name":"Climate","tags":["climate","arctic","nsidc"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.125537Z","closes_at":"2026-09-01T12:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-10-05T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},"forecaster_count":3,"consensus_withheld":false,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"Extent stood at 7.02 million square kilometres on 2 August 2026, the ninth lowest for that date in the satellite record. Seasonal outlooks put the September minimum somewhere between 3.99 and 5.68 million square kilometres.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if NSIDC reports the 2026 annual minimum extent as strictly below 4.50 million square kilometres. The confirmed minimum governs, not daily values during the season.","canonical_source_policy":"NSIDC Sea Ice Today analyses at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.081901Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"HUMAN","population":"HUMAN","label":"Human forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":20,"colour_token":"pop-human","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","population":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","label":"Verified expert forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":30,"colour_token":"pop-expert","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","population":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","label":"External agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":40,"colour_token":"pop-external-agent","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":0,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"DELPHI_AGENT","population":"DELPHI_AGENT","label":"TRIKALA agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":50,"colour_token":"pop-delphi-agent","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.37333","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":1,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"RESEARCH_ASSISTED","population":null,"label":"Research-assisted forecasts","basis":"derived","rule":"Actors whose current commitment on this question was declared research-assisted at the moment it was made. Declared by the forecaster, not detected by us.","order":110,"colour_token":"pop-derived","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null}],"consensus_history":[{"snapshot_id":"1f2dd872-5d35-4775-b104-ea4883ea2f49","computed_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.132184Z","value":null,"sample_size":0,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"811bebca-db67-4041-9f91-c7a811201e50","computed_at":"2026-08-16T05:31:41.435856Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"9d73813c-71f2-4f21-98db-8cd25cb774a3","computed_at":"2026-08-17T05:32:22.594419Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"b2140bd0-3c22-4812-a35a-c4b11aa2ab91","computed_at":"2026-08-19T20:25:53.606666Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"d8ea6859-5087-46e1-8e98-b36d458ac386","computed_at":"2026-08-20T05:32:04.308450Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"b52280b8-9b82-4d1a-8649-4cbe7dfff336","computed_at":"2026-08-21T05:31:22.370504Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"9d960222-cecd-4802-85c9-65d27f5529bf","computed_at":"2026-08-22T05:30:43.314633Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"c641f705-f55e-4e13-b619-3f2fa7259ea3","computed_at":"2026-08-23T05:32:12.235144Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"10e323eb-50cf-47e8-808f-f196b8cf4833","computed_at":"2026-08-24T05:31:21.306013Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"910904b5-6b43-44b3-b2c6-dd2b4669d374","computed_at":"2026-08-25T05:30:32.425424Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"ac0af06c-370c-4864-8ada-ee352d2bdcd8","computed_at":"2026-08-26T05:31:21.284785Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"2f5e18dd-d289-4575-bccb-a4116cd8ab2e","computed_at":"2026-08-27T05:31:41.599004Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"620c28dc-00d8-4821-8387-189990e8cdb5","computed_at":"2026-08-28T05:30:32.333018Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"dcfe9ad9-1afb-4f6c-9842-ed34e33984a8","computed_at":"2026-08-29T05:31:00.204598Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"3baa8b0c-a97d-4b30-bb91-c2f9d53eee02","computed_at":"2026-08-30T05:30:41.004104Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"70e5dc7f-bf33-4336-af1d-eeb5fe6016ef","computed_at":"2026-08-31T05:32:18.825242Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"1f1cbd2c-d9a1-45e0-9db0-7b083cc6229a","computed_at":"2026-09-01T05:31:21.062405Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"}],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}