{"id":"1d7c973e-1d2e-40a2-8242-236a5a5201b9","slug":"will-republicans-hold-at-least-51-us-senate-seats-after-the-3-november-2026-midterms","title":"Will Republicans hold at least 51 US Senate seats after the 3 November 2026 midterms?","status":"OPEN","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"elections","category_name":"Elections","tags":["usa","election","senate"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:35.732775Z","closes_at":"2026-11-03T11:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-12-15T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":null,"forecaster_count":0,"consensus_withheld":true,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"Thirty-five Senate seats are contested on 3 November 2026, including two special elections. Fifty-one is asked rather than fifty because the vice-presidential tie-break is not a seat.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if Republicans hold at least 51 seats measured against results certified by state election authorities as of 15 December 2026. The vice president's tie-breaking vote does not count as a seat.","canonical_source_policy":"Certified state results and the official Senate membership listing at https://www.senate.gov/.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:35.690266Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[],"consensus_history":[],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}