{"id":"07df80b9-b32c-4db8-ad24-19034793b27c","slug":"will-copernicus-rank-2026-among-the-three-warmest-calendar-years-in-its-record","title":"Will Copernicus rank 2026 among the three warmest calendar years in its record?","status":"OPEN","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"climate","category_name":"Climate","tags":["climate","copernicus","temperature"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.279942Z","closes_at":"2026-12-15T22:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2027-01-15T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":null,"forecaster_count":0,"consensus_withheld":true,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"The longest question in this batch by design. It closes in December and resolves in January, so it is the one question whose forecasters commit before a full quarter of the evidence exists.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if the Copernicus annual climate bulletin for 2026 places the year first, second or third warmest in the ERA5 record.","canonical_source_policy":"Copernicus climate bulletin at https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin, annual summary for 2026.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.234748Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[],"consensus_history":[],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}