{"id":"f69e4ff3-bcaa-42f5-a8f1-8044a9975b0f","slug":"will-both-openai-and-anthropic-announce-a-new-model-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2026","title":"Will both OpenAI and Anthropic announce a new model in the fourth quarter of 2026?","status":"OPEN","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"ai","category_name":"AI","tags":["ai","openai","anthropic"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:36.582007Z","closes_at":"2026-09-30T22:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2027-01-05T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":null,"forecaster_count":0,"consensus_withheld":true,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"A conjunction rather than a single event. It resolves YES only if both laboratories ship inside the same quarter, which is a different claim from either shipping alone.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES only if both openai.com/news and anthropic.com/news each carry at least one post dated between 1 October and 31 December 2026 whose subject is the availability of a model not previously available. The same exclusions apply as for the individual questions.","canonical_source_policy":"The dated post lists at https://openai.com/news/ and https://www.anthropic.com/news.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:36.529224Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[],"consensus_history":[],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}