{"id":"d8d7d8bd-61ec-4918-b395-799de97e359f","slug":"will-at-least-three-more-atlantic-storms-be-named-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026","title":"Will at least three more Atlantic storms be named between 24 August and 30 September 2026?","status":"CLOSED","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"climate","category_name":"Climate","tags":["weather","noaa","hurricane"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.426294Z","closes_at":"2026-08-23T22:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.60250","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.60250","median_probability":"0.60250","n":5,"sample_size":5,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":true,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},"forecaster_count":5,"consensus_withheld":false,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"Two storms had been named against a full-season forecast of seven to thirteen. September is normally the busiest month. Three more inside five weeks would put the season on track for the middle of the range.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if three or more Atlantic basin systems receive a name from the National Hurricane Center with the naming advisory timestamped between 24 August 2026 00:00 UTC and 30 September 2026 23:59 UTC. Storms named before the window do not count, whatever they do inside it.","canonical_source_policy":"National Hurricane Center advisory archive for the 2026 Atlantic season at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.385500Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.60250","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.60250","median_probability":"0.60250","n":5,"sample_size":5,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":true,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"HUMAN","population":"HUMAN","label":"Human forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":20,"colour_token":"pop-human","value":"0.70500","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.70500","median_probability":"0.70500","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","population":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","label":"Verified expert forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":30,"colour_token":"pop-expert","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","population":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","label":"External agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":40,"colour_token":"pop-external-agent","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":0,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"DELPHI_AGENT","population":"DELPHI_AGENT","label":"TRIKALA agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":50,"colour_token":"pop-delphi-agent","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.37333","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":1,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"RESEARCH_ASSISTED","population":null,"label":"Research-assisted forecasts","basis":"derived","rule":"Actors whose current commitment on this question was declared research-assisted at the moment it was made. Declared by the forecaster, not detected by us.","order":110,"colour_token":"pop-derived","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null}],"consensus_history":[{"snapshot_id":"9b8ff7d6-5f50-4b89-ab4e-d4efc1a640b5","computed_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.432571Z","value":null,"sample_size":0,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"76723414-63ce-4166-866a-16292ae4154c","computed_at":"2026-08-16T05:31:41.368239Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"6ac3e460-0bc0-40b6-ad53-86b9ac55100c","computed_at":"2026-08-16T18:37:39.158847Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"d1cd8c9a-d910-4cd3-a94c-58fd6620449c","computed_at":"2026-08-17T05:32:22.501365Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"55aacf8b-ed63-4a9c-92a6-42a16c66a973","computed_at":"2026-08-19T20:25:53.534374Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"7c3072d4-546b-4a47-a46f-7de38d7f3cb3","computed_at":"2026-08-20T05:32:04.209212Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"ae59a63b-cf87-4411-8dd8-783efa0a1742","computed_at":"2026-08-21T05:31:22.300327Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"af2a3598-2674-4fbd-b217-713f94f63496","computed_at":"2026-08-22T05:30:43.239232Z","value":"0.66000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"3e8113d6-a942-4aac-9568-38f34c6bc094","computed_at":"2026-08-22T23:57:31.621895Z","value":"0.60250","sample_size":5,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"}],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}