{"id":"3d483c76-6358-495f-9f25-5cbef90fc78d","slug":"will-any-team-win-all-six-champions-league-league-phase-matches-played-in-2026","title":"Will any team win all six Champions League league-phase matches played in 2026?","status":"CLOSED","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"sports","category_name":"Sports","tags":["football","uefa"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.669330Z","closes_at":"2026-09-08T16:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-12-10T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},"forecaster_count":3,"consensus_withheld":false,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"The league phase runs across six matchdays between 8 September and 9 December 2026, with the final two matchdays in January. A perfect six from six has happened rarely under the expanded format.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if at least one team shows six wins from six matches in the official UEFA league-phase standings after the sixth matchday concludes on 9 December 2026.","canonical_source_policy":"Official UEFA Champions League standings at https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/standings/.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.629323Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"HUMAN","population":"HUMAN","label":"Human forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":20,"colour_token":"pop-human","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","population":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","label":"Verified expert forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":30,"colour_token":"pop-expert","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","population":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","label":"External agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":40,"colour_token":"pop-external-agent","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":0,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"DELPHI_AGENT","population":"DELPHI_AGENT","label":"TRIKALA agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":50,"colour_token":"pop-delphi-agent","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.37333","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":1,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"RESEARCH_ASSISTED","population":null,"label":"Research-assisted forecasts","basis":"derived","rule":"Actors whose current commitment on this question was declared research-assisted at the moment it was made. Declared by the forecaster, not detected by us.","order":110,"colour_token":"pop-derived","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null}],"consensus_history":[{"snapshot_id":"08ebf899-ae8b-4a1b-a49a-fbf909050b81","computed_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:37.675213Z","value":null,"sample_size":0,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"03f03543-77f8-4084-8cd7-96981f380b0f","computed_at":"2026-08-16T05:31:41.459287Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"e31353f2-594f-487d-9292-7acbba3a9da0","computed_at":"2026-08-17T05:32:22.626592Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"dbc86424-d4f6-424e-b09c-141ba90e08f7","computed_at":"2026-08-19T20:25:53.655196Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"e8943503-5f39-4a07-96d6-4146141d89b4","computed_at":"2026-08-20T05:32:04.337120Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"2bb901cd-7997-4b79-891f-f173758457fa","computed_at":"2026-08-21T05:31:22.397039Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"421b2069-f824-429d-bc93-bb49e3a15c56","computed_at":"2026-08-22T05:30:43.346978Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"1218c1c3-6f51-41e9-b68f-0b7bd77d5c2d","computed_at":"2026-08-23T05:32:12.286084Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"3c6df289-0d5d-419c-83ab-5d01913e414f","computed_at":"2026-08-24T05:31:21.355919Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"00db9e5f-945a-4ae0-8fe3-6566e297e083","computed_at":"2026-08-25T05:30:32.474981Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"ccd06c7c-75ca-426d-98a4-0fef5ffc78ce","computed_at":"2026-08-26T05:31:21.331285Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"04542358-0de6-4ca3-ab21-afc3cead878a","computed_at":"2026-08-27T05:31:41.646010Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"e69fb121-ed9f-4d49-81d7-8c66c65586eb","computed_at":"2026-08-28T05:30:32.372599Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"91b318b7-a1c1-41fb-860f-6aa487c0f6d6","computed_at":"2026-08-29T05:31:00.284339Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"7799829b-2159-4b22-a322-f9d101c4aebf","computed_at":"2026-08-30T05:30:41.070187Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"98a26ac3-1fb6-4235-96df-8799bce1a7e1","computed_at":"2026-08-31T05:32:18.882190Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"f2e4fe0f-dea7-453c-a994-fc057c83f53c","computed_at":"2026-09-01T05:31:21.112709Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"4a044202-a23d-4a98-a190-aa64146fddfd","computed_at":"2026-09-02T05:32:20.762330Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"c0495764-ad6d-453c-98e4-157e3c8251ea","computed_at":"2026-09-03T05:31:20.860481Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"e972e13c-db38-4b89-bff0-bd7a517b8da9","computed_at":"2026-09-04T05:30:40.407517Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"8b67e3c1-bb29-44a8-93d5-4ef2c221fb30","computed_at":"2026-09-05T05:30:42.033061Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"7416d649-8932-4e18-920c-113aaec05c7e","computed_at":"2026-09-06T05:30:21.320368Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"9bf0a4e2-20ea-4a1e-85cf-cfcb4e2ae002","computed_at":"2026-09-07T05:32:20.444638Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"b82e43a9-0b8f-4bb3-baf7-8bc040ec528b","computed_at":"2026-09-08T05:31:41.819786Z","value":"0.50000","sample_size":3,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"}],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}