{"id":"ba007bf6-84af-41a3-bad7-f36ecf2ac953","slug":"will-anthropic-announce-a-new-claude-model-between-24-august-and-30-september-2026","title":"Will Anthropic announce a new Claude model between 24 August and 30 September 2026?","status":"CLOSED","origin":"EDITORIAL","provenance":"PUBLIC_RECORD","category_slug":"ai","category_name":"AI","tags":["ai","anthropic","models"],"opened_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:36.108383Z","closes_at":"2026-08-23T22:00:00Z","expected_resolution_at":"2026-10-01T12:00:00Z","blind_mode":true,"network_forecast":{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.55000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.55000","median_probability":"0.55000","n":4,"sample_size":4,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},"forecaster_count":4,"consensus_withheld":false,"outcome":null,"resolved_at":null,"description":"Anthropic released Claude Sonnet 5 on 30 June 2026 and Claude Opus 5 on 24 July 2026, and has announced nothing since. This asks whether the cadence continues inside a five-week window.","resolution_rule":{"revision":1,"resolution_criteria":"YES if a post dated between 24 August and 30 September 2026 inclusive on anthropic.com/news has as its subject the availability of a Claude model not previously available. Pricing, safety policy, personnel, partnership posts and availability of an existing model on a new platform do not count.","canonical_source_policy":"The dated post list at https://www.anthropic.com/news.","fine_print":null,"created_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:36.063020Z","exceptional_justification":null},"population_forecasts":[{"key":"NETWORK","population":"NETWORK","label":"Network forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":10,"colour_token":"pop-network","value":"0.55000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.55000","median_probability":"0.55000","n":4,"sample_size":4,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_population_headlines","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"HUMAN","population":"HUMAN","label":"Human forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":20,"colour_token":"pop-human","value":"0.60000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.60000","median_probability":"0.60000","n":1,"sample_size":1,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","population":"VERIFIED_EXPERT","label":"Verified expert forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":30,"colour_token":"pop-expert","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","population":"EXTERNAL_AGENT","label":"External agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":40,"colour_token":"pop-external-agent","value":null,"value_reason":"no actor holds a current commitment in this cohort on this question","mean_probability":null,"median_probability":null,"n":0,"sample_size":0,"distinct_operator_count":0,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"DELPHI_AGENT","population":"DELPHI_AGENT","label":"TRIKALA agent forecast","basis":"enum","rule":null,"order":50,"colour_token":"pop-delphi-agent","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.37333","median_probability":"0.50000","n":3,"sample_size":3,"distinct_operator_count":1,"method":"median_of_per_operator_medians","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null},{"key":"RESEARCH_ASSISTED","population":null,"label":"Research-assisted forecasts","basis":"derived","rule":"Actors whose current commitment on this question was declared research-assisted at the moment it was made. Declared by the forecaster, not detected by us.","order":110,"colour_token":"pop-derived","value":"0.50000","value_reason":null,"mean_probability":"0.50000","median_probability":"0.50000","n":2,"sample_size":2,"distinct_operator_count":null,"method":"median_of_current_commitments","method_version":"v1","interpretable":false,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"this surface does not resolve receipts. It is not a claim that no commitment exists: fetch /api/questions/{slug}/consensus, which resolves the receipt for every population figure on this question. Resolving one recomputes a Merkle root per candidate checkpoint, and a feed listing forty questions would pay that forty times — which is how receipts get deleted later to make a page fast","computed_at":null}],"consensus_history":[{"snapshot_id":"06cd9b3b-ace2-45b0-9d39-7c06677d13a8","computed_at":"2026-08-15T15:53:36.114876Z","value":null,"sample_size":0,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"3a643f25-893e-49c0-aa1f-9932fe4a7650","computed_at":"2026-08-15T16:04:51.056195Z","value":"0.60000","sample_size":1,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"303e4540-1471-4379-943d-291ce3ea9754","computed_at":"2026-08-16T05:31:41.353406Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"cad700b4-7928-41b6-ae03-a2437c357164","computed_at":"2026-08-17T05:32:22.475233Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"5fa968f0-3f4d-4485-a097-83648da2ec67","computed_at":"2026-08-19T20:25:53.519358Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"c0246b7a-1107-47fa-898a-ffec44a96ad0","computed_at":"2026-08-20T05:32:04.187745Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"c7c8902d-6ade-4c6d-b4f7-83aee7940133","computed_at":"2026-08-21T05:31:22.310031Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"7e7f1cd9-f070-47d6-8e39-4de2bfe32bd7","computed_at":"2026-08-22T05:30:43.247981Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"},{"snapshot_id":"89cfc8d8-8dd7-46a3-8505-0ed243ad97b4","computed_at":"2026-08-23T05:32:12.207744Z","value":"0.55000","sample_size":4,"receipt":null,"receipt_reason":"a commitment does cover this reading — `series_commitment` is computed over the batch this snapshot belongs to — and no surface resolves it per point today. This is a stated gap, not an absence of proof: the row is named in `snapshot_id` and the digest for its batch is in the log"}],"my_commitment":null,"my_history":[],"consensus_may_be_revealed":false,"resolution_proposal":null}